Publications

The Colombian economy will grow 2.3% in 2025, with falling inflation and interest rate cuts. In this context, the rice sector faces challenges due to high inventories, lower prices, and high production costs, which will reduce the planted area and production for 2026.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp rate cut to 3.50-3.75% amid a softening labor market. However, a highly divided FOMC will likely signal a pause for early next year, as the room for risk-management cuts has run its course and inflation remains near 3%.

The Colombian economy grew by 2.6% in 2025 driven by domestic demand. However, macroeconomic challenges such as fiscal and external deficits persist. Inflation will rebound to 6.5% in 2026, prompting the central bank to raise rates to 12.25%, slowing future growth.

Banxico is expected to resume its easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75%. Despite an uptick in headline inflation driven by supply shocks and higher oil prices, underlying domestic demand remains weak, supporting a move towards a neutral rate.

Following the midterm elections, economic expectations in Argentina are improving. GDP growth is projected at 4.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by fiscal balance, monetary normalization, and anchored inflation, which is expected to decelerate to 30% annually.

The Turkish economy will maintain moderate growth of 3.7% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. Inflation is revised upwards to 32% by the end of 2025, requiring a stronger currency and higher interest rates in the short term, supported by the central bank's macro-prudential measures.

Latin America is moving towards economic normalization after overcoming the initial volatility caused by the US elections. Although inflation is moderating and average growth will improve this year, the region faces an uncertain global context with weaker fiscal fundamentals.