Published on Thursday, April 9, 2026
Colombia | Sowing the future: Rice sector. March 2026
Summary
The Colombian economy projects a 2.3% growth this year, amid fiscal challenges and high rates. In this context, the rice sector, which contributes 0.3% of the national GDP, faces reduced margins due to high inventories and lower prices, projecting a drop in planting for 2026.
Key points
- Key points:
- At the macroeconomic level, inflation in Colombia would close near 4.7%, while the large fiscal deficit would limit the Central Bank's rate cuts to 100 basis points this year and another 100 next year.
- The rice chain generates 1.1% of agricultural employment with 36,700 workers and has 13,000 producers, reaching an agricultural production value of 5.7 trillion pesos and an industrial value of 6.3 trillion in 2024.
- In 2024, a historical production peak was reached with 3.5 million tons of green paddy rice, which generated an oversupply and raised inventories to 1.2 million tons, putting downward pressure on prices.
- The price of green paddy fell to 1.4 million pesos per ton in January 2026, compared to 1.7 million in 2024, while production costs ranged between 0.9 and 1.6 million per ton, affecting profitability.
- Imports amount to 196,000 tons, driven by the strength of the peso and the drop in the price of US rice, which went from 414 dollars per ton in 2024 to 265 dollars at the beginning of 2026.
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FIGURE 1. CARBON CAPTURE COST ESTIMATES (USD/TONNE OF CO2) |
FIGURE 2. CO2 CAPTURE COST AT LARGE-SCALE COAL POWER PLANTS (USD/TONNE OF CO2) |
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Source: BBVA Research based on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the US Context | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs |
Source: BBVA Research based on Is carbon capture too expensive? – Analysis - IEA |
Cost evolution conditioned by low "experience rates". Unlike wind or solar energy, which have experienced drastic cost declines over the last decade, analysis of CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) cost trends suggests slower cost reductions. Some CCUS technologies have been used since the 1970s in certain sectors; however, high costs persist due to project-by-project customization, high energy requirements, and limited deployment experience. An analysis of historical "experience rates" revealed that CCUS costs have only fallen modestly, especially compared to the rapid improvements in renewable energy technologies. The use of CCUS in limited situations hinders the "learning by doing" process. That said, recent evidence of cost improvements is emerging: The IEA reports that the cost of CO₂ capture at power plants fell by 35% from the first large-scale CCUS plant to the second, thanks to technological learning and better integration (Figure 2).
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Latin America
- Colombia
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
- Consumption
- Employment
Documents and files
Authors
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