Global | Argentina Outlook and Andalusia Perspectives. December 2025 and March 2021

Summary

The reports analyze the economic recovery in Andalusia after the pandemic, with a projected growth of 5.4% in 2021, and the situation in Argentina, which projects a 4.5% expansion in 2025 driven by fiscal balance, disinflation, and the normalization of monetary policy.

Key points

• Key points:
• The global economy will grow by around 3.2% between 2025 and 2027. In Argentina, the BCRA modified its exchange rate policy and the primary fiscal surplus is expected to remain around 1.6% of GDP to consolidate disinflation.
• Credit to the private sector in Argentina will register a real interannual increase of close to 40% in 2025. Furthermore, the energy sector will contribute a trade surplus of 8 billion dollars, stabilizing external accounts.
• Andalusia's GDP suffered an 11.2% contraction in 2020, slightly higher than the Spanish average, due to its high dependence on tourism and social consumption, particularly affecting employment in the Costa del Sol.
• The Andalusian recovery will depend on the European NGEU funds, from which the region could receive more than 2 percentage points of its GDP, and on the reactivation of foreign tourism conditioned by the progress of vaccination.

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