Global | War in Iran: new global shock or temporary slowdown?

Summary

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has caused a new energy shock. However, the prior strength of the global economy and the containment of financial markets point to a temporary slowdown, provided there is no prolonged interruption in the supply of oil and gas.

Key points

• Key points:
• The United States has an advantage due to its high oil and gas production, which cushions the direct impact. Supported by dynamic consumption and technological investment, its growth could remain around 2.5% in 2026.
• China faces the conflict with high energy dependence, but retains great public intervention capacity to mitigate external shocks, which would allow it to achieve growth close to 4.5% during 2026.
• Europe is the most exposed region due to its dependence on imports. Despite this, thanks to its proven adaptability, it could continue to grow above 1%, although with higher inflation than expected.
• The Spanish economy arrives in a favorable position thanks to its energy diversification and tourism, which could benefit as the country acts as a safe haven destination against instability in the eastern Mediterranean.

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