Mexico | Sectoral Regional Outlook. Second Half 2025

Summary

The Mexican economy is slowing down, sustained by the services sector and MSMEs. The automotive sector shows a limited contraction due to US tariffs. Multiproduct banking apps are boosting financial inclusion and digital payments.

Key points

• Key points:
• Mexico's GDP grew just 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, affected by a 1.3% industrial contraction, while primary and tertiary activities advanced 4.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
• MSMEs represent 99.8% of the country's economic units and contribute more than 70% of national employment, concentrating mainly in retail trade, tourism, and manufacturing.
• Automotive exports decreased by 2.8% in units and 3.8% in value during the first half of the year, reflecting the impact of the restrictive trade policy of the United States.
• The elasticity of the real exchange rate on manufacturing exports is low (0.0445), mitigated by Mexico's high degree of integration into North American global value chains.

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