Peru. The external deficit would have remained high in the second quarter

Summary

The trade balance keeps deteriorating. In the second quarter, in particular, it posted a negative result of USD 1,6 billion (USD 0,6 billion in 1Q14), which we estimate to be equivalent to somewhat more than 3 percentage points of GDP. With this outcome, the current account deficit, which reached 6,0% of GDP in 1Q14, would have remained high. This deficit should gradually begin to reverse in the second half of the year as the mining megaproject Toromocho reaches its full output capacity. However, the hefty level that it shows is a risk factor to be considered, especially when the US FED has begun the process of monetary policy normalization that will tighten global financial conditions.

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