Publications

Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from the manufacturing export sector.

The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion

State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain a significant share of US inputs. Thus, such trade deficits do not reflect the true nature of the US-Mexico trade relationship

Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico

The balance of payments registered a 2671 million of euro superavit, which can be explained through the positive balance in tourism and a lower energetic deficit. Good exports recovered dynamism at the start of 2T16, while imports fell back (2,0% and -2,0% MoM cvec). The fall in investment flows resulted in an influx of capital.

BBVA Research estimates that, in seasonally adjusted terms, both real imports and exports of goods grew in 1Q16 (0,6% y 1,4% QoQ, respectively). The improvement in the energy bill balance in March casued a smaller deficit in the trade balance (23.514 millions of euros in the 12 month accumulate).

Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in the energy balance.