Spain | Andalusia Outlook. March 2021

Summary

Andalusia's GDP contracted by 11.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic's impact on tourism and consumption. For 2021 and 2022, growth is forecast at 5.4% and 6.6% respectively, driven by European NGEU funds, vaccination progress, and the recovery of the services sector.

Key points

• Key points:
• The drop in social security affiliation in 2020 was heterogeneous, severely affecting tourist areas like Costa del Sol (loss over 4%), while areas with a higher agricultural or public weight like Huelva and Jaén managed to increase employment.
• Goods exports partially recovered in the second half of 2020, allowing the region's trade surplus to increase to 1.9% of GDP thanks to a greater reduction in imports.
• Home sales suffered significantly, registering a level 37% below the previous trend between March and July 2020, although housing prices fell less than the national average (-0.5% compared to -1.1%).
• The NGEU program funds managed by the autonomous communities could leave Andalusia with an allocation above the average, estimated at 2.0% of regional GDP, which will be key to boosting investment.
• The creation of 128,000 jobs is expected between 2019 and 2022, bringing the unemployment rate to 20.9% at the end of the period, although the regional GDP per capita will remain 0.3% below the pre-COVID level.

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