Spain | Andalusia Outlook. March 2021

Summary

The Andalusian economy contracted by 11.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic, severely affecting tourist areas. Growth of 5.4% is expected in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022, driven by the progress of vaccination, the recovery of consumption, and the impact of the European NGEU funds.

Key points

• Key points:
• The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous, with a drop in affiliation of over 4% in the Costa del Sol in 2020, while areas with a higher weight of essential activities such as Huelva and Jaén managed to increase their employment.
• Andalusian exports almost recovered their pre-crisis level by the end of 2020, driven by the food sector, which allowed the regional trade surplus to increase to 1.9% of GDP.
• The region will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy in 2021, after closing 2020 with a budget balance around equilibrium thanks to the central government's support measures estimated at 1.4 points of GDP.
• The creation of 128,000 jobs is estimated between 2019 and 2022, placing the unemployment rate at 20.9% at the end of the period, although the regional GDP per capita will remain 0.3% below pre-crisis levels.

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