Spain | Andalusia Outlook. March 2021

Summary

The Andalusian economy contracted by 11.2% in 2020 due to its high exposure to tourism and social consumption. GDP growth of 5.4% is expected in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022, driven by the progress of vaccination, the recovery of tourism, and NGEU European funds.

Key points

• Key points:
• The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous, with greater affiliation drops in tourist areas like Costa del Sol (over 4%), while areas with essential activities such as Huelva (+2%) and Jaén (+1%) created employment.
• Food exports recovered their pre-COVID level, allowing the regional trade surplus to increase to 1.9% of GDP. In the residential sector, housing prices fell by 0.5% in 2020, less than the national average.
• The creation of 128,000 jobs is estimated between 2019 and 2022, placing the unemployment rate at 20.9% at the end of the period. In February 2021, 4.4% of Andalusian affiliates were still affected by ERTE or cessation of activity.
• NGEU European funds managed by the autonomous communities could reach 18,000 million euros in 2021, of which Andalusia could receive an allocation equivalent to 2.0 percentage points of its GDP.

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