Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

Summary

Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.

Key points

• Key points:
• The prospects for a slowdown of world economic growth have been reinforced, in a context of rising uncertainty by trade tensions.
• Gradual recovery is still alive and will accelerate in the second half of 2019 on favorable base effect and supportive financial conditions.
• Inflation is decreasing faster than expectation. We expect 12.5% at the end of 2019.
• Economic policies will be supportive as the Central Bank immersed in the easing cycle and the New Economic Program envisaged a neutral fiscal policy.
• Uncertainties stemming from global markets, the trade war and the local geopolitical situation pose some risks.

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