We have adjusted GDP downwards from 2.5% to 2.1% in the light of rather slow growth in 3Q and a revision to the downside of growth in 1Q and 2Q

Summary

The quarterly (QoQ) growth rate of GDP in the third quarter of 2014 (3Q14) was 0.50%, seasonally adjusted (sa), equivalent to annual (YoY) growth of 2.1%. This rate was below our forecast and that of the consensus (BBVAe: 0.65% QoQ; consensus: 0.60% QoQ). In the third quarter, primary activities (agriculture and livestock) performed best, at a quarterly growth rate of 2.5%. Tertiary activities (services) came in second, with 0.5% growth, while secondary activities (industry) posted quarterly growth of just 0.4%, all in seasonally adjusted terms. In addition, quarterly growth was adjusted downwards in the first two quarters of the year (1Q14: from 0.44% to 0.36% QoQ sa; 2Q14: from 1.04% to 0.90% QoQ sa), which indicates that economic activity has performed slowly in the first nine months of the year, leading us to revise our annual growth for 2014 from 2.5% to 2.1%

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