Publications

The European Central Bank addresses the recent energy supply shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East by developing multiple economic scenarios. Given the volatility of oil and gas prices, the institution adopts a strict stance to anchor inflation expectations and prevent second-round effects.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran will impact the Spanish economy through higher energy prices, raising inflation and cooling growth. GDP growth forecasts remain at 2.4% for 2026 and 2027, assuming the recent surge in oil prices will be temporary and stabilize around $70 per barrel.

Inaction on climate change implies a negative impact on potential GDP through capital, labor, and productivity. However, an orderly transition and effective adaptation strategies could generate a positive economic boost in the long run, despite the high uncertainty.

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Libra, Facebook's proposed global digital currency, has disappointed, with several partners abandoning the initiative and severe rejection by countless authorities on both sides of the Atlantic.

There was much curiosity surrounding Christine Lagarde's first press conference following a meeting of the ECB's Governing Council. This was not so much over the tone of monetary policy—which followed the same lines as in Mario Draghi's era—but over how she would act in a fractured field where some did not welcome her.

Concerns are increasing regarding what is happening in the financial markets. Above all, this is because contagion is affecting all geographies and asset classes. This leads us to ask what is driving this new market collapse. Is it the Fed? China? What can we expect in the coming months regarding commodities?