Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Fed

US | Divided Fed set to proceed with final 2025 rate cut

March 26, 2026

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp rate cut to 3.50-3.75% amid a softening labor market. However, a highly divided FOMC will likely signal a pause for early next year, as the room for risk-management cuts has run its course and inflation remains near 3%.

US | Fed to ease again despite flying blind on key economic data

March 23, 2026

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this week, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%. Despite a government shutdown delaying official data, alternative indicators point to resilient economic growth but a softening labor market, prompting the Fed to continue its easing cycle cautiously.

US | Fed emphasizes increased uncertainty as it stays on hold

March 19, 2026

The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty due to the conflict in Iran. Growth projections were revised upward, but inflation forecasts also rose driven by oil prices and tariffs. The Fed will maintain a cautious, wait-and-see approach with little urgency to resume rate cuts.

US | Fed emphasizes increased uncertainty as it stays on hold

March 19, 2026

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50-3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty due to the conflict in Iran. While growth projections were revised upwards, inflation forecasts also increased. The Fed will keep a cautious, data-dependent stance, pausing rate cuts until at least the second half of 2026.

Big Data techniques used

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January 25, 2024

Fed pivots instead of pushing back at the recent shift in market expectations and fuels bets of rate cuts in early 2024; Treasury yields plummet along the yield curve

US | Fed’s dot plot signals fewer rate cuts in 2024

September 21, 2023

It still points to one more 25bp rate hike this year as the Fed is still not fully confident about inflation and feels it needs to strengthen market’s expectations about the need for “higher for longer” rates.

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June 29, 2023

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March 13, 2023

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October 21, 2022

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October 5, 2022

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