Publications

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures will have an extraordinary impact on public accounts. The deficit and the public debt will be at their highest levels in the last decade.

China's GDP growth dipped to historical low in Q1 amid COVID-19. The sliding growth calls for more policy stimulus. We believe pro-growth measures will help put China’s growth engine back to the right track. The GDP growth rate will steadily climb up to 7% y/y in Q4, concluding 2020 with a full-year growth outturn of 2.2%.

Budget execution data up to Nov-19 anticipate a further structural deterioration of the structural balance during 2019. For 2020-2021, and pending the completion of the new government's budget programme, the recently approved measures maintain the expansionary tone of fiscal policy

Budget execution data up to July 2019 slightly worsens the dynamics of 2018. For the 2019-2020 period, an exclusively cyclical adjustment is expected, which will determine a slightly expansive tone of fiscal policy

Budget implementation in April 2019 slightly worsens the dynamics of 2018. During the 2019-2020 period, and in no policy change scenario, the pace of adjustment of the public deficit would be moderating compared to that observed in previous years

We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.

The Public deficit (excluding local corporations) stood at 0,8% of GDP in March, one tenth above that registered one year ago. The impairment was due to both central government and Social Security. While the regions adjusted their budget balance again