Publications

The Peruvian economy registered a 3.5% year-on-year growth in January 2026, driven by the dynamism of the construction sector and the recovery of primary GDP. February indicators suggest a slight moderation, while supply factors will affect the end of the first quarter.

Although an early deterioration in the industrial sector was expected due to the early halting of global value chains, the effect on consumption in March seems to be greater than that shown by the retail sales data to date.

The world became more complex for all in economic terms because of the increase in trade tensions between the great powers. Uncertainties that negatively affected the financial markets generating great volatilities in the stock markets, as well as in the debt and currency markets at a global level.

The Spanish economy is showing enviable resistance in the face of an internal and external environment surrounded by uncertainty. When GDP data is published for the second quarter, it is highly likely that growth will have remained between 2% and 3% year-on-year.

Modern retail sales will show a good performance in the remainder of this year and next. Later, with the demographic bonus, the increase in the purchasing power of households, and the growing access to digital media that will boost online sales, the sector has room to continue expanding.

GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the economy to become more obvious from now onwards.

The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 1Q17 accelerated to 1.0% QoQ, surpassing the BBVA Research estimate (0.2% QoQ). The quarterly growth was due to the positive contribution of external demand (0.8pp), given the strength exports have once again shown in a context of import slowdown.