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February 8, 2018
Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from the manufacturing export sector.
December 1, 2017
The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion
March 22, 2017
Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration
March 14, 2017
State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain a significant share of US inputs. Thus, such trade deficits do not reflect the true nature of the US-Mexico trade relationship
March 11, 2017
Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico
July 29, 2016
The balance of payment registered a surplus of 4.267 millions of euros in May, which, on the positive side, was explained by tourism and the lower energetic deficit. The financing account registered a net capital outflow of 35.273 millions of euros after excluding the Bank of Spain. This occurred due to a rise in outward investmentand a fall of the investment going in.
June 30, 2016
The balance of payments registered a 2671 million of euro superavit, which can be explained through the positive balance in tourism and a lower energetic deficit. Good exports recovered dynamism at the start of 2T16, while imports fell back (2,0% and -2,0% MoM cvec). The fall in investment flows resulted in an influx of capital.
May 20, 2016
BBVA Research estimates that, in seasonally adjusted terms, both real imports and exports of goods grew in 1Q16 (0,6% y 1,4% QoQ, respectively). The improvement in the energy bill balance in March casued a smaller deficit in the trade balance (23.514 millions of euros in the 12 month accumulate).
April 21, 2016
BBVA Research estimates that, in seasonaly corrected terms, both real exports and imports fell in February (-0,8% y -0,5% MoM, respectively). All in all, the trade balance deficit was reduced to 23.688 millons of euro (12 months accumulate), due to the improvements in the euro zone balance and the energy bill.
March 21, 2016
Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in the energy balance.
February 18, 2016
Both real good exports and imports took a step back in December, which did not stop the fourth quarter and the overall value for 2015 from closing the year with a positive balance. All in all, the trade balance's accumulated deficit barely varied in 2015, despite the improvement in the energy balance.
January 21, 2016
In November, real good exports and imports behaved slightly better than pointed by central forecasts. Nevertheless, the accumulated deficit in the trade balance grew despite the improvement in the energy balance.
