Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Türkiye economic activity

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March 4, 2026

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September 2, 2025

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Türkiye | Weaker activity signals in 4Q so far

December 16, 2022

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.

Türkiye | Weaker activity signals in 4Q so far

December 15, 2022

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December 14, 2022

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Turkey: Unexpected Signal from August IP

October 14, 2019

Industrial Production (IP) declined by 3.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in August, lower than median market expectation and ours (Consensus:-0.7%, BBVA: -0.5%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a growth rate of +1.5% yoy in September (47% of info). We maintained a prudent forecast of 0.3% growth for 2019.

Turkey | Some negative signals from April IP

June 18, 2019

IP(cal. adj. ) contracted by 4% yoy in April, worse than market expectation (-2.5%). The deceleration in the yearly contraction still continues but loses some steam. Though, supported by the current momentum and positive base effects of 2H19, in absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

Turkey | The recession is over but risks are alive

May 31, 2019

Turkish Economy contracted by 2.6% in annual terms in 1Q19. The economy is now technically out of the recession as the quarterly growth in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms turned into positive by 1.3% after the decline of three previous consecutive quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

October 9, 2017

In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

The CBRT Strengthens its Credibility

July 27, 2017

The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on food and tax hikes of last year.

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