Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Uncertainty

Spain | The effect of uncertainty in Catalonia: a synthetic control analysis

October 23, 2018

Private sector Social Security registrations in Catalonia have slowed down markedly since mid-2017. The analysis presented suggests that the increased uncertainty in the region had a negative effect on employment, reducing job creation by about 30,000 jobs.

Are we wrong about Catalonia?

January 22, 2018

The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.

A good year, with lots of doubts

January 2, 2018

The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.

U.S. | Economic uncertainty: no relief for faint-hearted

July 29, 2016

Two year highs in uncertainty inauspicious sign for growth in 2016. Lending activity could suffer if banks grow wary of economic outlook. Likelihood of Fed raising rates low amidst geopolitical or policy tumult

Consumo en tiempos de incertidumbre

July 14, 2016

Decía Kant que la inteligencia de un individuo se mide por la cantidad de incertidumbre que es capaz de soportar. A la vista de las cifras de consumo, alguien podría concluir que los españoles destacan por su clarividencia y erudición.

Rational Expectations

February 15, 2016

I am part of a cult. At least that is the perception of many economists when I tell them that I studied for my Ph.D. in Minnesota. Since 2000, 6 people who studied or pursued the most important part of their research agenda at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Minnesota have won the Nobel Prize.

Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency

June 1, 2009

In this paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system

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