Published on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 | Updated on Thursday, April 9, 2026
Colombia | Sowing the future: Rice sector. March 2026
Summary
The Colombian economy will grow 2.3% in 2025, with falling inflation and interest rate cuts. In this context, the rice sector faces challenges due to high inventories, lower prices, and high production costs, which will reduce the planted area and production for 2026.
Key points
- Key points:
- The Central Bank projects rate cuts of 100 basis points this year and another 100 next year, while the unemployment rate will remain around 9% with a higher creation of informal employment compared to formal jobs.
- Globally, Colombia ranks 25th in dry paddy rice production. Nationally, the rice chain contributes 0.3% of the total value added and generates 1.1% of agricultural employment with 13,000 producers.
- In 2024, agricultural rice production reached 5.7 trillion pesos, highlighting the rainfed system in the Llanos (46.7% of the area) compared to the irrigated system in the central zone (22.6%).
- The cost of producing a ton of green paddy in 2024 varied between 0.9 and 1.6 million pesos, while record inventories of 1.2 million tons put downward pressure on prices, reaching 1.4 million in 2026.
- White rice imports amount to 196 thousand tons, equivalent to 9% of domestic consumption, driven by the strength of the peso and lower international prices compared to the United States.
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FIGURE 1. ESTIMATES FOR COSTS OF CARBON CAPTURE (USD/TON CO2) |
FIGURE 2. COST OF CO2 CAPTURE FROM LARGE-SCALE COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS (USD/TON CO2) |
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Source: BBVA Research from Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs |
Source: BBVA Research from Is carbon capture too expensive? – Analysis - IEA |
Cost evolution shaped by low “experience rates”. Unlike wind or solar power, which have seen dramatic cost declines over the last decade, from the analysis of CCS cost trends it follows slower cost reductions. Some CCS technologies have been used since the 1970s in some industries, yet persistent high costs remain due to project-by-project customization, high energy requirements, and limited deployment experience. An analysis of historical “experience rates” found CCS costs have fallen only modestly especially compared to the rapid improvements in renewable energy technologies. The use of CCS in limited situations makes a “learning by doing” process difficult.That said, recent evidence of cost improvements is emerging: The IEA reports that the cost of CO₂ capture at power plants fell 35% from the first large-scale CCS plant to the second, thanks to technology learning and better integration (Figure 2).
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Colombia
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
- Consumption
- Employment
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