Global | The global economy, between resilience and oil

Summary

The world economy showed a positive balance in 2025 thanks to falling inflation and strong investment. However, the recent conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices pose a new risk scenario that could put upward pressure on prices and moderate economic growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• United States growth would advance around 2.5% this year and moderate to 2.2% in 2027, driven by investment associated with artificial intelligence and less restrictive monetary conditions.
• The Eurozone would register a GDP increase of around 1.1% in 2026 before accelerating to 1.4% in 2027, while China would maintain a structural slowdown with an advance close to 4.5% this year.
• A short military conflict, lasting approximately one month, would place oil barrel prices at an average of 85 dollars, generating a reduced global impact and a more prudent tone from central banks.
• A prolonged war would more severely affect Europe and Asia due to their greater energy dependence on the Persian Gulf, increasing the probability that inflation will spread to non-energy components.

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