Publications

The world economy showed a positive balance in 2025 thanks to falling inflation and strong investment. However, the recent conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices pose a new risk scenario that could put upward pressure on prices and moderate economic growth.

COVID-19 tends to expand current account surplus while increase capital inflows under capital and financial account. Altogether its impact on China's Balance of Payments is limited.

The economists who attempt to predict the consequences of interactions between events, policies and institutions are storytellers. Stories that interpret and define economic reality, such as the epidemic triggered by COVID-19.

At the end of the Second World War a consensus was forged between the advanced economies of the world, led by the U.S., around the idea of seeking a world without barriers to trade in goods and services and capital flows. Thus, for decades, the United States adopted a policy of trade opening and promotion of global trade.

A week ago, BBVA Research revised its GDP growth forecast for 2019 upward one tenth to 2.3%, twice as much as in the eurozone. Days later, the IMF did the same and its forecast was also raised to 2.3%.

Financial markets rattled for the third straight day as US-China trade tensions festered ahead of crucial negotiations between high-level officials in Washington, starting today. Trump’s rebuke that ‘China broke the deal’, accelerated the sell-off in equities.

Caution prevailed across financial markets, as US-China trade tensions ratcheted up further today. The slight downward revision in Eurozone growth forecast by European commission did not help either. Safe-haven bonds continued to attract fresh demand, while equity markets declined.