Mexico | Sectoral-Regional Outlook. Second Half 2025

Summary

The Mexican economy faces a slowdown in 2025, with growth sustained by services and the primary sector offsetting industrial weakness. The automotive sector reduces production and exports in response to new tariff policies and trade uncertainty.

Key points

• Key points:
• MSMEs represent 99.8% of economic units and contribute more than 70% of national employment, consolidating themselves as a strategic pillar to sustain the domestic market in the face of weaker external momentum.
• The transportation equipment sector's GDP contracted by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while external sales fell by 3.8% in value, reflecting an adjustment in profitability margins.
• The elasticity of manufacturing exports to the real exchange rate is very low (0.04), indicating that competitiveness depends more on integration into global value chains than on the depreciation of the peso.
• Multiproduct banking applications boost financial inclusion by integrating payments and everyday services, such as airtime sales, in a mobile market where prepaid plans dominate with 84% of total lines.

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