Peru | Economic projections in a new global environment. October 2025

Summary

The Peruvian economy shows resilience with a projected growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, controlled inflation, and high terms of trade. However, medium-term risks persist due to institutional weakness and citizen insecurity.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global trade faces headwinds due to rising geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies, which could generate global GDP losses of between 1% and 3% in the medium term.
• The Central Reserve Bank of Peru will maintain its reference rate at 4.25%, while the Peruvian sol strengthens against the dollar driven by the high price of metals such as copper and gold.
• From the second half of 2025, investment flows in large mining and infrastructure projects will increase, added to the transitory impact on consumption due to new pension fund withdrawals.
• Citizen insecurity generates a diversion of resources equivalent to 3.1% of GDP, which, together with legislative initiatives that increase public spending, will limit potential growth to 2.5%.

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