Publications

The Peruvian economy will grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, driven by a favorable international environment, high metal prices, and the start of major investment projects. In the medium term, growth will moderate to 2.5% due to institutional weakness and insecurity.

The Colombian economy grew by 2.6% in 2025 driven by domestic demand. However, macroeconomic challenges such as fiscal and external deficits persist. Inflation will rebound to 6.5% in 2026, prompting the central bank to raise rates to 12.25%, slowing future growth.

Following the midterm elections, economic expectations in Argentina are improving. GDP growth is projected at 4.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by fiscal balance, monetary normalization, and anchored inflation, which is expected to decelerate to 30% annually.

The ratio of household indebtedness to GDP remains low, although non-performing loans in credit cards are accelerating. Meanwhile, corporate foreign currency debt to domestic banks is rising, and both the corporate and banking sectors continue to roll over their external debt at high rates.

Latin America is moving towards economic normalization after overcoming the initial volatility caused by the US elections. Although inflation is moderating and average growth will improve this year, the region faces an uncertain global context with weaker fiscal fundamentals.

The Colombian economy is gradually recovering, driven by private consumption and an incipient rebound in investment. Inflation and interest rates continue to decline, although fiscal challenges and the need to strengthen domestic and external savings persist to ensure long-term growth.

China's official 4% deficit for 2025 signals an expansionary stance, but its complex fiscal structure requires deeper analysis. The revenue shortfall from land sales limits actual stimulus, exacerbating domestic demand weakness and ongoing deflationary pressures in the broader economy.