Spain Economic Outlook. December 2024

Summary

The Spanish economy surprises on the upside, with GDP growth revised to 3.1% in 2024, driven by employment and private consumption. Towards 2025 and 2026, the recovery will continue, although conditioned by the DANA and US tariff policies.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth will stand at 2.3% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, supported by falling inflation, rising wages, lower interest rates, and greater energy competitiveness.
• The economic effects of the DANA will subtract between 0.0 and 0.1 percentage points from growth in 2024, and between 0.1 and 0.4 points in 2025, although the rapid economic policy response will mitigate its aggregate impact.
• The potential tariff increase in the United States will negatively affect European exports, subtracting around 0.2 percentage points from Spanish GDP in 2025 and 0.7 points in 2026.
• The tourism sector will moderate its advance after reaching record levels, while the shortage of affordable housing and demographic aging emerge as the main structural bottlenecks.

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