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The Spanish economy surprises on the upside, with GDP growth revised to 3.1% in 2024, driven by employment and private consumption. Towards 2025 and 2026, the recovery will continue, although conditioned by the DANA and US tariff policies.

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GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints in tourism growth.

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According to BBVA's credit card spending data, foreign tourist spending was above the 2019 records for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This, added to the positive effect of domestic tourism, led to a 17% growth in total spending in the sector compared to Oct-19.

Pandemic measures against COVID-19 hit Social Security enrolment in March 2020. The effect was greater in touristic areas, especially in the islands and southern mediterranean ones, and smaller in great urban areas, and in the north.

BBVA Research has analyzed developments in the Valencian tourism sector for a number of years, and seen the important changes that it has undergone. The sector generates around EUR 16 billion per year (15% of regional GDP) and is responsible for 290,000 jobs (15% of total employment).