Colombia | Challenges, data and opportunities. March 2026

Summary

The Colombian economy grew by 2.6% in 2025 driven by domestic demand. However, macroeconomic challenges such as fiscal and external deficits persist. Inflation will rebound to 6.5% in 2026, prompting the central bank to raise rates to 12.25%, slowing future growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global trade remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions and tariffs, offset by the advancement of imports and the boom in artificial intelligence.
• The external deficit will continue to widen due to the trade imbalance, although its financing will be supported by stable foreign direct investment and a dynamic flow of remittances.
• The Colombian peso will experience a gradual depreciation in the medium term, driven by higher twin deficits, ceasing to contribute to the reduction of inflation.
• Employment will lose quality and traction given higher costs. Furthermore, fixed investment will depend on the recovery of construction, while the machinery sector will record declines.
• The public sector faces fiscal restrictions that limit its prominence, making it essential to yield the growth momentum to private investment through clear rules and lower inflation.

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