Peru Outlook. March 2026

Summary

The Peruvian economy faces three negative supply shocks that have led to a downward revision of GDP growth for 2026 to 2.9%. Inflation will rebound temporarily but will close the year within the target range, while the Central Bank will keep its rate at 4.25%.

Key points

• Key points:
• The conflict in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices are mitigated by the better growth prospects of the United States and the high average prices projected for copper and gold over the next two years.
• Weather anomalies on the northern coast and the interruption of the Camisea natural gas supply will negatively affect economic activity during the first half of the year, impacting primary sectors and manufacturing.
• The fiscal deficit fell to 2.2% of GDP in 2025, complying with the fiscal rule, but a slight deterioration to 2.3% is projected in 2026 due to increased spending on public sector wages and defense.
• The Peruvian sol experienced an abrupt depreciation due to geopolitical tensions, but it is expected to resume a strengthening trend, supported by a current account surplus that will exceed 3.5% of GDP this year.

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