Türkiye Economic Outlook. November 2025

Summary

The Turkish economy will maintain moderate growth of 3.7% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. Inflation is revised upwards to 32% by the end of 2025, requiring a stronger currency and higher interest rates in the short term, supported by the central bank's macro-prudential measures.

Key points

• Key points:
• The global economy will grow by around 3.2% between 2025 and 2027, driven by demand linked to artificial intelligence, which will offset the negative effects of protectionism and geopolitical uncertainty.
• The exchange rate is estimated at 43 liras per dollar by the end of 2025 and 52 liras by the end of 2026, implying a nominal depreciation of less than 2% per month despite inflationary pressures.
• The current account deficit will remain moderate, standing at 1.3% of GDP in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, while the negative fiscal impulse of this year will turn neutral by the end of the next year.
• The unemployment rate will average 8.4% in 2025 and rise slightly to 9.2% in 2026, in a context where employment growth remains weak and broad unemployment hovers around historically high levels.

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