Publications

Generative artificial intelligence will act as a general-purpose technology, boosting labor productivity and transforming the financial sector. Although it will replace routine tasks, its main role will be to complement workers and democratize knowledge, requiring ethical and supervised adoption to mitigate associated risks

The Andalusian economy contracted by 11.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic, severely affecting tourist areas. Growth of 5.4% is expected in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022, driven by the progress of vaccination, the recovery of consumption, and the impact of the European NGEU funds.

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Rice production in Colombia reached record levels in 2024, generating excess inventories and downward pressure on prices. For 2026, a reduction in planted area is expected, which could adjust supply, although climate and tariff factors pose risks to the sector.

The ratio of household indebtedness to GDP remains low, although non-performing loans in credit cards are accelerating. Meanwhile, corporate foreign currency debt to domestic banks is rising, and both the corporate and banking sectors continue to roll over their external debt at high rates.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this week, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%. Despite a government shutdown delaying official data, alternative indicators point to resilient economic growth but a softening labor market, prompting the Fed to continue its easing cycle cautiously.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran will impact the Spanish economy through higher energy prices, raising inflation and cooling growth. GDP growth forecasts remain at 2.4% for 2026 and 2027, assuming the recent surge in oil prices will be temporary and stabilize around $70 per barrel.