Argentina Economic Outlook. December 2025

Summary

Following the midterm elections, economic expectations in Argentina are improving. GDP growth is projected at 4.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by fiscal balance, monetary normalization, and anchored inflation, which is expected to decelerate to 30% annually.

Key points

• Key points:
• The global economy will grow by 3.2% between 2025 and 2027, driven by artificial intelligence and fiscal stimulus, which will offset the impact of protectionism and migration restrictions.
• The primary result accumulated a surplus of 1.7% of GDP by November 2025, with a projected financial surplus of 0.3% for the end of the year after accounting for debt interest payments.
• The Central Bank will modify the exchange rate band scheme in 2026 to adjust for past inflation and launched a reserve accumulation program based on the evolution of money demand.
• A current account deficit of 2.0% of GDP is estimated for 2025, mitigated by a goods trade surplus of 8.9 billion dollars thanks to the strong contribution of the energy and mining sectors.

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