Argentina Outlook. December 2025

Summary

Following the elections, Argentina's economic outlook improves with solid political backing. GDP growth is projected at 4.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by fiscal equilibrium, disinflation, and monetary normalization, although challenges persist in the labor market and the external sector.

Key points

• Key points:
• The primary surplus reached 1.7% of GDP in November 2025, achieving a projected financial surplus of 0.3% for the year thanks to fiscal discipline, despite a 13.1% real increase in pension payments.
• Annual inflation will close at 30% in 2025 and decelerate to 14% in 2026, driven by the fiscal-monetary anchor, despite the recent monthly rebound due to the adjustment of regulated prices and meat.
• The Central Bank is moving towards a normalized monetary framework with positive real rates and will modify the exchange rate band scheme in 2026 based on past inflation to facilitate reserve accumulation.
• The energy and mining sector drives the trade balance with a surplus of USD 8.9 billion in 2025, partially offsetting the current account deficit of 2.0% of GDP expected for this year.

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