Peru | Economic projections in a new global environment. October 2025

Summary

The Peruvian economy will grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, driven by a favorable international environment, high metal prices, and the start of major investment projects. In the medium term, growth will moderate to 2.5% due to institutional weakness and insecurity.

Key points

• Key points:
• Peru is one of the countries least affected by US tariffs, with an estimated direct impact on the reduction of exports of only between 0.2% and 0.3% of GDP.
• A new release of pension funds is expected in late 2025 and early 2026, with a potential withdrawal of up to 31.6 billion soles, which will temporarily boost consumption.
• Citizen insecurity generates a significant diversion of resources, with an estimated total cost equivalent to 3.1% of GDP, negatively affecting private sector spending.
• The fiscal deficit will stand at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, missing the fiscal rule. Meanwhile, the monetary policy interest rate will remain at 4.25% given controlled inflation.
• The Peruvian sol will strengthen supported by high terms of trade and a less restrictive Federal Reserve, with an exchange rate projected between 3.40 and 3.50 soles per dollar by the end of 2025.

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